NASA Asteroid Hitting Earth?

Asteroid Hitting Earth: Is 2024 YR4 a Real Threat?

Astronomers Track a Potential Earth Impact in 2032

An asteroid named 2024 YR4 is making headlines as astronomers closely monitor its trajectory to determine the chances of it colliding with Earth in 2032. Estimated to be the size of a football field, the asteroid currently has a 2.1% chance of impact, or about 1 in 47 odds. However, scientists expect these chances to drop as they refine their calculations.

What Are Near-Earth Objects (NEOs)?

NEOs are asteroids or comets that pass close to Earth due to the gravitational pull of nearby planets. While most are harmless, larger ones can pose a threat. For instance, in 2013, a meteor exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, injuring over 1,500 people due to the shockwave.

How Are Asteroids Tracked?

Astronomers use powerful telescopes worldwide to scan the night sky for fast-moving objects. Systems like NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) and the Catalina Sky Survey identify new threats by spotting their movement against the backdrop of stars.

When astronomers detect a new asteroid, they analyze its brightness, speed, and trajectory to determine its size and distance. Radar telescopes can provide even more precise data, but 2024 YR4 is already too far for this method.

Could 2024 YR4 Hit Earth?

If an asteroid is deemed a threat, it is reported to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), which coordinates global tracking efforts. Scientists will continue observing 2024 YR4 until it becomes too faint to track, likely in the coming months. If more observations are needed, they will have to wait until 2028—just four years before a possible impact.

Can We Prevent an Asteroid Impact?

In 2022, NASA’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) Mission successfully altered an asteroid’s trajectory, proving that deflecting an asteroid is possible. However, success depends on the asteroid’s size, composition, and available lead time for launching a mission.

Should We Be Worried?

While an impact could cause significant local damage, 2024 YR4 is not a planet-killer. Additionally, scientists are confident that future observations will likely rule out an impact entirely. For now, astronomers are keeping a close watch, ensuring that Earth remains safe.